A job advertisement at a restaurant in Illinois, USA [AP Yonhap News file photo]

Amid ongoing concerns that a US-Iran war could lead to soaring oil prices and economic slowdown, the US employment situation continued to show resilience in April.

The US Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics announced on the 8th (local time) that non-farm payrolls in the US increased by 115,000 in April compared to the previous month.

While this is lower than the 185,000 job increase in March (revised figure), the increase doubled the expert forecast of 55,000 compiled by Dow Jones.

Economic experts had worried that soaring energy prices could trigger a decrease in household spending power and an increase in layoffs, but the impact of the Iran war on the job market appears to be limited.

By sector, the healthcare industry contributed to the job growth in April with an increase of 37,000 jobs. The job growth in the healthcare sector surpassed the average of the past 12 months (an increase of 32,000 jobs).

The transportation and warehousing (30,000 jobs), retail trade (22,000 jobs), and social assistance (17,000 jobs) sectors also contributed to the job increase in April.

In contrast, federal government jobs decreased by 9,000. The Labor Department explained that federal government jobs have decreased by 348,000 (11.5%) from their peak in October 2024 due to workforce reductions by the Office of Government Efficiency (DOGE).

The unemployment rate remained at 4.3%, unchanged from the previous month and in line with expert expectations. The labor force participation rate slightly decreased to 61.8% from 61.9% in the previous month.

Wage growth fell short of expectations. The average hourly wage in April rose by 0.2% from the previous month, falling below the market expectation of 0.3%. On a year-over-year basis, it rose by 3.6%, also below the market forecast of 3.8%.

The moderate wage growth alleviates concerns about a vicious cycle where wage increases could reignite inflation.

Following the unexpectedly significant improvement in employment conditions in March, and the continued positive trend in April, concerns about job growth slowing down due to soaring oil prices from the Iran war and supply chain disruptions are expected to weaken.

Earlier in February, voices of concern about a weakening labor market emerged on Wall Street as jobs significantly decreased.

Mohamed El-Erian, an advisor at Allianz Group, commented on X (formerly Twitter) today, "These employment figures confirm that the labor market is maintaining its resilience despite the recent headwinds from the Middle East conflict."

A gas station price sign in Houston, Texas, USA [Houston=AFP Yonhap News]

However, as the US-Iran war enters its third month, concerns about inflation rising due to the impact of high oil prices are expected to persist.

As Kevin Wash, a nominee for Federal Reserve Chair, is expected to take office as the new chair this month, hawkish members within the Fed (those who favor monetary tightening) are clearly expressing concerns about inflation risks.

Beth Hammack, President of the Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank, who is considered hawkish, said at a conference the previous day, "When I meet with business leaders, I hear concerns that inflation sentiment is starting to take root in people's minds. When I meet with individual consumers, I also hear about the pain of inflation."

The market is leaning towards the view that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will not be able to cut interest rates within the year.

According to CME's FedWatch, the interest rate futures market, immediately after the release of the employment data today, reflected a 73% probability that the Fed will keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at the current 3.50-3.75% by December. The probability of at least one rate hike was reflected at 14%.