It is important to note that while the Republican Party is preparing for a "post-Trump" era, it is moving forward with the premise of expanding MAGA. [Getty=Yonhap News]  

Since the launch of Donald Trump's second term, mainstream domestic and international media have repeatedly spoken of "Trump fatigue" and "cracks within the Republican camp." However, the reality in American politics is the exact opposite.

The Republican Party is strengthening its character as the "Trump Party," and the MAGA (Make America Great Again) movement, Trump's base of support, is also broadening its grip on established institutions.

One symbolic scene was the Republican primary election in Indiana on the 5th. Of the seven primary candidates who received Trump's public endorsement, five secured tickets to the general election, and one of the remaining two was in a very close race.

The Withering of "RINOs" and the Realignment of the Republican Party

Indiana is traditionally a strong Republican state, which makes this outcome even more significant. If RINOs (Republican In Name Only) had gained traction in a Republican stronghold, it would have been interpreted as a national signal of Trump's declining influence. The reality was the opposite. It revealed that the party's organization, conservative voters, and local politicians are all moving around Trump.

In particular, candidates at the Senate, House, and state government levels who are loyal to the core MAGA agenda showed strength. These are candidates who champion issues such as strengthening border control, suppressing illegal immigration, bringing back manufacturing, opposing China, opposing "wokeism," and expanding energy development. This indicates that tangible issues like cultural wars, borders, and national identity are gaining more traction than the abstract conservatism that the traditional Republican Party once emphasized, such as "small government" and "fiscal balance."

The Republican Party: From Wall Street's Domain to a Populist Conservative Party

At one time, Wall Street, major corporations, conservative think tanks, and neo-conservative foreign and security policy groups held significant influence within the Republican Party. These were individuals who were strongly aligned with the Democratic globalists after the dissolution of the Soviet Union.

However, the core base of the current Republican Party is reportedly almost entirely reshuffled, now comprising △ provincial middle class △ white working class △ evangelical Christians △ and suburban voters sensitive to border issues.

Meanwhile, there are reasons why the mainstream Republican Party cannot be solely defined as the "white working class." Support for Trump has increased among some Hispanic and Asian voters, particularly among self-employed and religiously conservative voters.

It appears to be taking on the character of a multiracial conservative coalition. This supports the notion that Trump's MAGA is not merely an election slogan, but fundamentally a movement for the resurgence of the American middle class, which has been marginalized by the rise of China and the process of globalization.

The "War for Maps" Ahead of the Midterm Elections

Discussions and legal battles regarding the redrawing of electoral districts are underway, primarily in Republican states such as Texas, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Missouri, in anticipation of the midterm elections.

In Texas, discussions continue to redraw districts in a way that favors Republican seat expansion, and in Florida, the redrawing spearheaded by Governor Ron DeSantis has already had the effect of consolidating Republican advantages. In North Carolina and Ohio, efforts are ongoing to transform districts currently held by Democrats into Republican-leaning ones.

Democratic states like California, New York, and Illinois have also been actively engaged in redistricting for some time. Therefore, labeling only the Republican Party's actions as a "threat to democracy" does not fully reflect the customary aspects of American realpolitik. In American politics, redistricting has long been one of the core tactics of power struggles.

On the 29th of last month, the Supreme Court ruled unconstitutional the Democratic-led racial gerrymandering in Louisiana. There were complex elements of conflict surrounding the maintenance of majority-Black districts and the Voting Rights Act, and the issue was not solely attributed to the Democratic Party. However, in the case of Louisiana, it was deemed that the line had been crossed, as race was used as an explicit criterion for drawing district lines.

"MAGA Loyalty" as a Criterion for Republican Candidates

It is important to note that while the Republican Party is preparing for a "post-Trump" era, it is moving forward with the premise of expanding MAGA. If there had been a strong sentiment within the Republican Party to shed the Trump line, the midterm election strategy would have leaned towards embracing so-called moderate conservatives or undecided voters. The reality is different. A significant criterion for selecting candidates is converging on "MAGA loyalty."

The Democratic Party and mainstream media also miss this point. Trump's supporters are not simply a fandom but a political coalition formed amidst changes in American social structures. It should be understood as a phenomenon of the times, born out of the accumulation of factors such as the decline of manufacturing, increased illegal immigration, widespread urban crime, fatigue with identity politics, and intensifying competition with China.

The image of failed border control in the South is one of the Democratic Party's fatal weaknesses. While cracks have even emerged within the Democratic Party over this issue, the MAGA camp's message is simple and clear: "Close the border" and "Stop illegal crossings."

In foreign policy and security as well, mentioning only "Trump's disadvantages" presents a biased perspective. Amidst the prolonged Ukraine war, Middle Eastern conflicts, and tensions with China, Trump's "America First" policy still holds strong persuasive power. Pressure on European and allied nations to increase their defense spending also has high support within the United States. Many voters are skeptical about why astronomical American tax dollars should be spent on the security of other countries.

The current American political landscape is already close to a phase where the Republican Party's structure itself has been "MAGA-ized." The "new conservative populist Republican Party," realigned around Trump, has made the image of the "entrenched elite Democratic Party" even more prominent. Of course, with so many variables in American politics, it is too early to predict the midterm election results. However, looking at the actual trends dispassionately, the perspective of "Trump's downfall" or "MAGA's decline" is far from reality. Analyses that treat this as a foregone conclusion should be approached with caution.

◆ Dr. Im Myungshin

Doctorate in Chinese Literature, Northeast Asian Researcher