Anti-government protest in Havana, Cuba, July 2021 [AP=Yonhap News Archive]

The U.S. administration of Donald Trump is preparing for the possibility of the collapse of the Cuban regime as early as this summer, with military operations also under consideration, the U.S. online news outlet Axios reported on the 28th (local time).

According to U.S. administration officials, the Cuban regime is expected to face its worst period this summer. With the economy paralyzed by U.S. sanctions, the cutoff of energy supplies from Venezuela and elsewhere has made it even more difficult for the Cuban people to endure the hot summer climate.

One source said, "The weather will be hot, and people will have no electricity. If there's no refrigeration, food spoils. People get angry. They can take to the streets. Then what happens?"

He then recalled the large-scale anti-government protests that took place in Cuba in July 2021, the first in decades. This year, with power shortages and deteriorating public safety, large and small anti-government protests are occurring continuously across Cuba.

President Trump and his cabinet have openly asserted that Cuba is already a "failed state" and will collapse on its own, and that the United States will "liberate" and "take over" Cuba.

The United States continues to tighten the screws on Cuba. Embargoes are being enforced by law, and earlier this month, sanctions were imposed on GAESA, a key Cuban state-owned enterprise, and foreign companies doing business with it, and the sister of GAESA's CEO was also arrested.

GAESA is a military-industrial complex founded 30 years ago by former Communist Party General Secretary Raul Castro, the behind-the-scenes power broker in Cuba, and is the regime's source of funds. The U.S. has indicted Raul Castro and is threatening his personal safety.

A former Treasury Department official responsible for Cuban sanctions predicted that direct sanctions on GAESA and secondary sanctions on trading companies would lead to the withdrawal of foreign financial institutions and companies from countries like Spain, Panama, and Mexico that still had a presence in Cuba.

A Trump administration aide said that the U.S. pressure on Cuba is "classic Trump style," adding, "It's about applying pressure until the enemy loses balance and falters, watching their reaction, and then repeating the pressure with more intensity."

President Trump is "moderating the pace" with regard to Cuba to focus on peace negotiations with Iran, and will apply gradual pressure to cause the Cuban regime to slowly wither away, a senior U.S. administration official said.

When asked by reporters on the 20th how long the embargo against Cuba would last, President Trump said, "We will announce it soon," adding, "It's crumbling there. They (the Cuban regime) have lost control."

The U.S. is known to have recently conducted a joint interagency "war game" under the command of Southern Command, assuming a scenario where Cuba falls into unrest due to popular uprisings.

A senior official told Axios, "Everything is under review. (At this moment,) no invasion is planned or imminent," but added, "If the President says 'go,' we are ready for anything."

Southern Command announced on the 20th that an aircraft carrier strike group consisting of the aircraft carrier Nimitz, the destroyer Gridley (DDG 101), and the supply ship Patuxent (T-AO 201) had been deployed near Cuba.

However, U.S. officials believe that the possibility of a military operation to arrest Castro in Cuba, similar to the arrest and extradition of former Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro earlier this year, is unlikely.

They cited that unlike Venezuela, where Vice President Delcy Rodríguez (acting president) has led a stable pro-U.S. transitional government, no such "alternative figure" has emerged in Cuba. Even if Castro were arrested, it would be difficult to expect the Cuban leadership, which has established a "decentralized system," to rapidly pivot to a pro-U.S. stance.

Raul Castro [EPA Yonhap News]