Submarine-launched ballistic missile JL-3 displayed at a Chinese military parade [EPA=Yonhap News Agency file photo]

An analysis suggests that China has increased its stockpile of nuclear warheads over the past year and deployed some of its nuclear forces to operational units.

On the 8th, the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported, citing a report released by the Swedish think tank Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) on the same day, that as of January this year, China's nuclear warhead inventory had increased by 20 compared to last year, reaching 620.

The report predicted that China is extensively modernizing and expanding its nuclear weapons, and that its stockpile of nuclear warheads will continue to grow over the next decade.

While it is estimated that most of China's nuclear warheads are still stored separately from their delivery vehicles, the number of nuclear warheads deployed in operational units is estimated to have increased from 24 last year to 34 this year, as some have begun to be deployed on missiles for mobile units.

SIPRI assessed that China possesses 775 ground-launched missile silos and has already surpassed the United States and Russia in the number of intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launchers. Furthermore, it projected that China's ICBM force size could approach the levels of the United States and Russia around 2030.

The report also stated, citing U.S. government sources, that China may have fitted nuclear warheads onto some of the approximately 100 missiles deployed at three newly constructed silo bases, and that nuclear warheads may also be loaded onto nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) that are effectively on continuous deterrence patrol missions.

SIPRI analyzed, "When combined with early warning systems, the purpose of these deployments would be to enhance China's second-strike capability." Second-strike capability refers to the ability to launch a retaliatory nuclear attack after being subjected to a nuclear strike.

Wilfred Wan, Director of SIPRI's Weapons of Mass Destruction Programme, commented on China's recent moves, stating, "This is an attempt to guarantee the survivability of its nuclear forces and the credibility of its nuclear deterrent in a situation where the development of U.S. precision-strike weapons and missile defense systems threatens China's ICBM forces."

China has consistently maintained a policy of no first use of nuclear weapons and has claimed to possess only the minimum level of nuclear forces necessary for its national security, not participating in a nuclear arms race.

SIPRI stated that the nine nuclear-armed states—the United States, Russia, China, the United Kingdom, France, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel—continued to modernize and expand their nuclear forces last year, with most deploying new nuclear weapons or systems capable of delivering them.

As of January this year, the total number of nuclear warheads worldwide was 12,187, a decrease of 54 from last year. However, this is attributed to the decommissioning of nuclear warheads by the United States and Russia, while the number of deployed nuclear warheads is estimated to have increased from 3,912 last year to 4,012.

SIPRI explained that although Russia and the United States account for approximately 83% of the global nuclear warhead stockpile, their share is gradually decreasing as the nuclear forces of other countries increase.

SIPRI cited the end of the New START treaty, the last arms control agreement between the United States and Russia, as a background for these changes. The treaty, signed in 2010 and extended in 2021, expired on February 5th.