The successor to Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba will be effectively determined on the afternoon of the 4th through a vote to elect a new leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).

Candidates Koizumi and Takaichi, considered the two frontrunners in the LDP leadership election. Yonhap News. 

A new party leader will be elected if a candidate receives a majority of the combined votes from 295 members of parliament and 295 votes from party members (Japanese nationals who pay party dues) and party associates (members of political groups supporting the LDP).

However, given the current structure of Japanese politics, it is difficult for any single candidate to secure a majority in the first round. Therefore, a runoff election (second round) is expected, where the two candidates with the most votes will compete, decided by the 295 votes from parliament members and 47 votes from local party organizations.

Although the opposition holds more seats than the ruling party in the current Japanese Diet, local media expect that the new LDP leader will succeed Prime Minister Ishiba, as the LDP remains the largest party and it is difficult for opposition parties with vastly different ideologies and policies to unite.

Five candidates are running in this election, forming a "one strong, two medium, two weak" landscape.

According to local media, the frontrunner until the final stages is Shinjiro Koizumi, Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, who is aiming to become the youngest postwar prime minister and the first to reach the office in his 40s.

The second son of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, he first ran for LDP president in September last year but suffered a setback, finishing in third place.

Throughout this campaign, he has consistently employed a "minimize errors" strategy, avoiding mention of policies that might be opposed by conservatives within the party.

The "two medium" contenders who emerged in the latter half of the campaign are Sanae Takaichi, former Minister of Economic Security, and Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi, both of whom have been battling for second place to advance to the runoff.

However, the Yomiuri Shimbun reported on the 2nd that former Minister Takaichi, who was considered one of the two frontrunners alongside Minister Koizumi early in the race, is still ahead of Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi.

Takaichi, known for her hard-line conservative views, is highly popular among party members and also has the support of some members of the former Abe faction.

Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi, originally considered a "dark horse," has been increasing his support by demonstrating a sense of stability during debates.

Consequently, it is expected that either Takaichi or Hayashi will advance to the runoff to compete against Minister Koizumi in the final round.

While analysis suggests that Minister Koizumi has a high chance of winning in the runoff, some variables remain.

A primary example is the influence of factions, such as the "Aso faction" led by former Prime Minister Taro Aso.

The LDP voluntarily dissolved its factional groups following the "slush fund scandal" that erupted in late 2023, but the 43-member Aso faction maintained its structure.

Additionally, while former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has dissolved the "Kishida faction," he is still known to hold significant influence over the lawmakers who belonged to his former faction.

As a result, if instructions are issued at the factional level to consolidate votes for a specific candidate, the outcome of the race could potentially shift significantly.

The new LDP leader elected today is expected to take office as prime minister following a prime ministerial nomination election in an extraordinary session of the Diet, which is anticipated to be held on the 15th.

In Japan's parliamentary system, when the leader of the ruling party changes, the Diet must go through the procedure of electing a new prime minister.

Yonhap News