Chairman of the East Asia Peace Research Institute

Recently, various rumors about the power struggles within the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) have been surfacing almost daily. Anti-China media and overseas Chinese experts, primarily located abroad including Taiwan and the United States, are raising issues related to the CCP's internal power struggles. These contents are then amplified and re-produced as rumors on YouTube and social media, becoming a hot topic for many. When rumors become a hot topic, fact-checking is necessary.

In the past, there have been continuous rumors about the health issues, seclusion, or power irregularities of former and current top CCP leaders. In most cases, these rumors would subside within three to four days, or at most a week. However, recent rumors have been escalating since mid-May, starting with Xi Jinping's seclusion, then moving on to his power irregularities, resignation rumors, soft landing theories, hard landing theories, and so on. In fact, the rumors about Xi Jinping's power irregularities began in July 2024.

Three Reasons to Pay Attention to Rumors from Overseas Anti-China Media

The author believes there are three reasons why we need to pay attention to the rumors of internal CCP power struggles, including the rumors of Xi Jinping's resignation, being raised by overseas anti-China media and Chinese experts. Firstly, it is rare for rumors about long-term power struggles to be so detailed and consistently accompanied by specific circumstantial evidence, which is unusual for political changes and current situations within the closed-off CCP.

Secondly, overseas anti-China media and Chinese experts have their own networks within the CCP, so the circumstantial evidence they present cannot be entirely dismissed. With such detailed and diverse information, it is reasonable to suspect that there might indeed be problems occurring.

Thirdly, a characteristic of power struggles within the CCP is the so-called "leakage tactic." They have a habit of leaking rumors, mixed with some factual information, both internally within China and internationally, and then observing the reactions and public opinion trends to determine their next course of action. However, these current rumors are not only diverse but also seem to be a mixture of rumors from various factions. One might even call it a rumor war.

Key Keywords and Two Fact-Checking Points

The clear key keyword that emerges is the CCP's power struggle. Therefore, for fact-checking, we need to examine two aspects. The first is military power (軍權). The most crucial source of power supporting the CCP's authority lies in who controls the People's Liberation Army. This is fundamental to analyzing CCP politics.

Mao Zedong, by leaving the famous quote "Power grows out of the barrel of a gun," solidified his one-man rule and deification for a long tenure. Deng Xiaoping, without holding the positions of CCP General Secretary or Chinese President, grasped the chairmanship of the CCP and the Central Military Commission of China, ushering in an era where no one could challenge him.

Who controls the People's Liberation Army now? On the surface, it is naturally Xi Jinping, the Chairman of the CCP and the Central Military Commission of China, who represents military power as the top leader. However, following the 3rd Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee (hereinafter referred to as the 3rd Plenum), held from July 15th to 18th, 2024, the general view is that Zhang Youxia, the former second-in-command of the military and Vice Chairman of the CCP and the Central Military Commission, has gained control of military power.

The circumstantial evidence suggesting problems with Xi Jinping's control of military power is that his appointed military confidants are being purged by Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia under the pretext of corruption, and their positions are being filled by Zhang Youxia's confidants, not Xi Jinping's.

The second is party power (黨權). We need to examine who is currently in control of the Communist Party. On the surface, it should be Xi Jinping, the General Secretary of the CCP, China's ruling party, meaning the party leader, who holds party power. However, there is increasing circumstantial evidence suggesting that Xi Jinping's grip on party power, like his military power, is different from before.

Unlike his diminished influence in military power to Zhang Youxia, Xi Jinping's control of party power still appears to be effective for now. However, it is noteworthy that recently, members associated with Xi's faction, known as the "Xi family army" (習家軍), are being purged under corruption charges, and their positions are being taken over by members of other factions through personnel changes.

Xi Jinping has succeeded in serving three terms, making this his 13th year in power. However, Xi Jinping's peak power can be seen as lasting until the first half of 2024. It appears that his power began to decline starting in July, the beginning of the second half of the year, particularly after the 3rd Plenum.

The starting point is the military power that Zhang Youxia has begun to control, and this year, party power is also facing challenges. The power struggle within the CCP, which had been dormant, has reignited. The author will now begin to dissect these issues one by one, including those that could not be covered in detail in this column due to space limitations.

Epilogue

Why 'Dissecting China'?

Why should we analyze China's political struggles, systemic contradictions, social discontent, and real economy? The reason is clear. All these factors directly impact our international politics, national defense security, foreign policy, and economic strategies. This is why the author will be serializing the 'Dissecting China' series through the newly established Patriotic Media Hanmi Ilbo.

Kim Sang-soon Profile

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• Chairman of the East Asia Peace Research Institute

• CEO of YouTube Kim Sang-soon TV

• Ph.D. in International Relations, Peking University

• Master of Sociology, National Taiwan University

• An expert on China with approximately 5 years of residency in Taiwan and 25 years of residency in China.

Kim Sang-soon TV 【Xi Jinping Power Struggle Analysis】 Series Link
👉 https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL1qGG7GcG2O6pLUB2KiRQTzrb93JlMH-r

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