Hong Kong's South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported on the 19th that U.S. intelligence agencies have analyzed that China does not plan to attack Taiwan in 2027 and intends to control Taiwan without the use of force.

Chinese military vessels and U.S. military aircraft in the Bashi Channel between the Philippines and Taiwan in February [SCMP Hong Kong capture]

SCMP cited the annual report of the U.S. Intelligence Community (IC) for the information.

The IC is a collection of U.S. federal government intelligence agencies and their subordinate organizations that conduct intelligence activities for U.S. foreign policy and national security interests, and it operates under the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), which reports directly to the U.S. President.

According to the report, the IC assessed in its report that "China threatens to use force to achieve reunification if necessary, and to fight back if the United States attempts to weaken China's rise by using Taiwan, but it prefers to achieve reunification without the use of force if possible."

The report further stated, "The current Chinese leadership is not planning an invasion of Taiwan in 2027, nor does it have a specific timeline for achieving reunification."

The report also added that the Chinese People's Liberation Army is "steadily but unevenly" building its capabilities to occupy Taiwan.

President Xi Jinping, who is in his third term after being elected through the Chinese Communist Party's National Congress, held every five years, has repeatedly expressed his determination to unify Taiwan by force if necessary.

In particular, the international community is wary of the possibility of Xi Jinping, who aims for a long-term reign, initiating military provocation against Taiwan in 2027, the year of the 21st Party Congress. In this context, the IC's report has drawn attention.

SCMP emphasized that former U.S. President Donald Trump had stated that China would not attack Taiwan during his tenure, downplaying China's repeated military drills surrounding Taiwan, but noted that Xi Jinping himself has never confirmed this.

Meanwhile, as the U.S.-China summit through President Trump's visit to China on the 31st is expected to be postponed for 5 to 6 weeks due to the Iran war, China is focusing on blocking U.S. arms sales to Taiwan.

According to foreign media reports, the Trump administration had been preparing to approve a Taiwanese arms sale worth up to $14 billion (approximately 20.8 trillion won), including Patriot (PAC-3) and the Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System (NASAMS).

In diplomatic circles, it is seen that cross-strait (China and Taiwan) engagement is proceeding to a considerable extent, with the pro-China Chairman of Taiwan's largest opposition party, the Kuomintang (KMT), Eric Chu, recently stating that he is pursuing a meeting with President Xi in the first half of this year, to which the Chinese government responded by expressing its hope to strengthen exchanges with the KMT.

China is adopting a "two-pronged" approach: expanding exchanges with the Taiwanese KMT, which recognizes the "One China" principle, while maintaining pressure on the opposing current ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) administration.

Last month, the cross-strait party exchange forum, the "KMT-CCP Forum," was held in Beijing for the first time in 10 years since 2016, between the Chinese Communist Party and Taiwan's KMT.

China and Taiwan (PG) [Illustration by Kang Min-ji]