On April 12, a Pakistani Ranger passes by a billboard for the US-Iran peace talks in Islamabad. [Photo=AFP]

The United States and Iran have entered a two-week ceasefire and are holding negotiations, with Pakistan mediating. The current ceasefire appears to be less about peace and more like a "calm before the storm," where each nation prepares for its next move.

The U.S. will assess the progress of the negotiations and prepare for the next phase, while Iran will assess the damage, strengthen its defensive capabilities internally, and coordinate its internal stance.

Uneasy Truce and Negotiations

A key point to watch is whether China, which is believed to have exerted behind-the-scenes influence on this ceasefire, will remain merely a mediator or actively shift to an offensive mode by positioning itself as Iran's life support.

since the war began, the U.S. and Israel have conducted thousands of airstrikes targeting Iran's human and material military assets. According to an analysis by The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), Iran has attacked and inflicted damage on numerous energy facilities in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, including Israel. It is expected to take a considerable amount of time to restore these damaged facilities to normal operations.

Iran is reportedly imposing a transit fee of approximately 3 billion won per vessel for allowing passage through the strait, which violates the 'Right of Innocent Passage' under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea.

The Importance of the Strait of Hormuz

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), approximately 20 million barrels of oil are transported through this strait daily, accounting for about 20% of global oil consumption, 30% of global seaborne crude oil transport, and 20% of global LNG trade.

China, allied with Iran, sees an average of 20-30 ships passing through the strait daily (out of a total of 135-150 ships), accounting for about 35% of the total volume. As China relies on this strait for 45-50% of its total energy supply, it holds vital importance.

India accounts for 17%, and Japan and South Korea account for 15%, making up over 70-80% of their imported crude oil. European countries (UK, France, Germany, etc.) account for 5%, and the U.S. accounts for 3%.

United States (Operation Epic Fury)

The U.S. aims to maintain its hegemony in the Middle East, protect its allies (Israel and GCC states), stabilize the energy supply chain, and, most importantly, weaken anti-U.S. forces by inducing regime change in Iran. The war's objective is the destruction of Iran's military capabilities to a degree that it poses no threat for a considerable period, including the definitive elimination of Iran's nuclear capabilities.

Israel (Operation Roaring Lion)

Israel seeks to guarantee the security of its territory and establish its position as the sole nuclear power in the region. Based on its experience in wars with Hamas and Hezbollah, it aims to resolve security uncertainties by directly striking Iran's mainland, the entity behind these groups.

Iran: Regime Survival is Key

In the worst-case scenario of assassinations of top leadership and strikes on key facilities, Iran's core national interest lies in maintaining internal control, maximizing war costs by blockading the Strait of Hormuz and attacking U.S. bases, and thus forcing the coalition forces to retreat. Regime survival and the preservation of the Axis of Resistance will be the immediate objectives.

China: Significant Losses if War Prolongs

As Iran's largest oil importer, China's top priority is 'energy security.' Instability in the Strait of Hormuz could deal a fatal blow to China's industry, which is why it is superficially criticizing the violation of sovereignty and calling for a diplomatic solution.

China trades over $250 billion annually with GCC countries, the highest in the world. Iran is a key country in the Belt and Road Initiative, and the two nations established a strategic partnership in 2021, promising investments worth $400 billion. They have also been strengthening military cooperation, including in drones and anti-ship missiles. If the war prolongs, significant losses are anticipated.

Russia: Calculating Benefits from Oil Price Surge

Russia considers Iran a key military partner in the Ukraine war (as a supplier of drones and missiles). The collapse of the Iranian regime would be equivalent to losing a strategic foothold, so Russia is supporting Iran's defense capabilities through intelligence provision and electronic warfare support. Furthermore, Russia is calculating the indirect benefits of increased energy export revenues as oil prices surge due to the Middle East turmoil.

GCC Countries (Saudi Arabia, UAE, etc.): Coexistence of Opportunity and Fear

Gulf nations such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain view the weakening of their rival Iran's military power as a security opportunity. However, they simultaneously feel the fear of retaliation, as Iran might, as a last resort before defeat, target GCC desalination plants or oil production infrastructure, which could endanger their national survival. Therefore, they exhibit a dual stance, cooperating with the U.S. while simultaneously trying not to excessively provoke Iran, focusing on preventing their own territories from becoming battlegrounds.

As an ally of the U.S., South Korea faces pressure for military and material support while also having to consider its economic relationship with Iran and oil price stability, presenting a highly complex diplomatic dilemma. It is likely to secure a favorable position by contributing a certain role through K-defense or participating in a multinational coalition for maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz.

Japan, too, is attempting mediation by leveraging its independent diplomatic relations built with Middle Eastern countries for stable energy supply and demand, while also considering the role of its Maritime Self-Defense Force within the framework of the Japan-U.S. alliance.

European Countries: Threat of U.S.-led NATO Withdrawal

European countries (UK, France, Germany, etc.) are concerned about the increasing economic burden and energy crisis resulting from the outbreak of war in the Middle East following the war in Ukraine. The U.S.'s lukewarm response to requests for participation in ensuring the safety of the Strait of Hormuz is threatening the sustainability of the NATO alliance.

A Complex Strategic Chess Match

Ultimately, while the U.S. and Israel aim to 'permanently' eliminate the threat from Iran in this war, other countries seem to prioritize national interests in defending against energy crises, economic collapse, and retaliatory attacks that may arise during the process, rather than the elimination of Iran's threat.

Iran's Shield

Iran has been deploying all available means over decades, investing vast sums of money, through asymmetric warfare using small high-speed boats, numerous drones, and mine-laying for attacks on merchant ships, and anti-ship missile (ASCM) attacks with a range of 600 miles from coastal and deep inland underground fortresses.

America's Spear

Considering the recently revealed military operational capabilities of the U.S., it is employing satellites, HUMINT, AI (Palantir, Claude, etc.), and JDAMs (a weapon system that converts existing aerial bombs into 'smart bombs' by equipping them with GPS/INS guidance) to counter Iran's strategy of blockading the strait. It is expected to eliminate Iran's threat to the strait by employing all possible military means, including precision strikes on underground fortresses along the coast and inland using newly developed bunker busters (GBU-72, 5000-pound explosive power) launched from B1 Lancer bombers, deployment of mine-clearing vessels, destruction of maritime targets using A-10 attack aircraft and Apache helicopters specialized in low-altitude operations, and the deployment of ground forces using amphibious assault ships.

The U.S. bombing of key facilities on Hargh Island, from which over 90% of Iran's oil is exported, and the potential for ground troop deployment to occupy the island are also being discussed as military options for the U.S.

 Scenario 1: Precise Surgical Strikes and Nuclear Neutralization

Unless the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is dismantled and nuclear facilities are completely eliminated, this war will be a 'pause,' not an end. This scenario involves the complete destruction of Iran's major nuclear facilities and the simultaneous elimination of key IRGC command leadership, as the most powerful physical option focused on temporal urgency.

 Scenario 2: Multi-dimensional Isolation and Energy Blockade

This aims to induce internal division within the Iranian regime by neutralizing oil exports, which constitute 90% of Iran's economy. Specifically, it leverages diplomatic leverage by inflicting severe damage on China's energy supply and demand in the process, pressuring Iran to abandon its nuclear ambitions. To cut off funding to Iran-linked proxies and allies, it considers tracking illicit funds, financial sanctions, and even secondary boycotts.

 Scenario 3: Inducing Internal Revolution and Regime Change

As the most fundamental solution, this involves concentrating on information and psychological warfare to organize the 'internal discontent' of the Iranian people. Tailored information based on AI will be delivered to the populace suffering from water shortages and inflation, and moderate factions or opposition groups within the Revolutionary Guard will be co-opted to induce collapse from within. To this end, the possibility of the U.S. providing weapons to the Kurds has also been raised.

Realistically, a 'phased pressure scenario' is likely to be considered, which combines Scenario 1 (facility strikes) and Scenario 2 (economic blockade) to tie Iran's hands, and then, taking advantage of the weakened regime's foundation, completes Scenario 3 (regime change).

Conclusion

Achieving lasting peace by Iran abandoning its nuclear ambitions and pursuit of regional hegemony will by no means be easy, but it is believed that the continued will and efforts of the parties involved can unlock a solution.

There is no free riding on security. It is hoped that stakeholders will contribute to a reasonable extent to ensure free and open navigation in international straits.

◆ Dr. Shin Dong-choon

Ph.D. in Public Administration, President of the Global Aerospace Industry Association, and Representative of the National Association for Freedom and Unification. After passing the 21st Higher Civil Service Examination, he had a career in public service before becoming a CEO, university professor, media contributor, author, and actively engaging as the President of the Global Aerospace Industry Association.