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This week's capital flow was not an exit from the market, but a repositioning. Semiconductors returned to the main stage, followed by automobiles and IT services, while defense was pushed from a safe haven to a profit-taking phase.The essence of this week's capital flow was not an escape, but a reallocation.
On the 13th, with negotiations faltering and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz re-emerging, both foreign and institutional investors sold off, leading to a defensive trend. However, the atmosphere changed from the 14th onwards.
As expectations of a ceasefire, stable oil prices, and the strength of US tech stocks converged, capital flowed back to Korea's leading sectors, with semiconductors at the center.
On the 14th, during the KOSPI rebound, foreign investors net bought 830 billion won and institutions net bought 1.25 trillion won. This trend continued on the 16th with foreign investors net buying 464.4 billion won and institutions net buying 1.1 trillion won.
The reason for semiconductors' return to the main stage was clear.
TSMC reported a record first-quarter net profit of T$572.5 billion, a 58% increase, surpassing market expectations. With the strong demand for AI chips confirmed by its earnings, the Seoul market re-centered on Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.
Indeed, on the 16th, Samsung Electronics rose 3.08% and SK Hynix rose 1.67%, driving the index. As automobiles and internet stocks also climbed, capital began to spread from semiconductors to adjacent sectors.
Conversely, during the period of relief, safe-haven assets took a breather first.
Defense stocks showed weakness on the 14th, and on the 17th, as foreign investors net sold 2.026 trillion won and the index paused, profit-taking pressure in the defense sector became more prominent.
On the same day, KOSDAQ rose 0.61% to 1170.04. This is not a market collapse, but rather a typical rotation where interest shifts to secondary and small-cap stocks when leading stocks take a breather.
This week, Samsung SDS also had its own capital narrative.
As the US global private equity and investment firm KKR decided to invest $820 million in convertible bonds, Samsung SDS's stock price surged by 20.8% during trading hours.
The market interpreted this not as a simple capital infusion, but as a strategic bet on the expansion of AI and enterprise digital transformation. This served as an example demonstrating that the AI narrative can expand beyond semiconductors.
The key points to watch next week are also clear.
First, we need to see if the money that returned to semiconductors will maintain its central position after a period of adjustment.
Second, we need to distinguish whether defense, shipbuilding, and nuclear power sectors are simply taking a break or being deprioritized in terms of capital allocation.
Third, we need to confirm if the subsequent rotation into KOSDAQ and small-cap stocks is a broadening trend accompanied by increased trading volume. The key to next week's capital flow lies in determining whether it is an "extension of the return to the main stage" or "a repetition of short rotations."
※ This article is a commentary on market trends in an article format, not investment advice. Actual stock prices and capital flows may vary depending on exchange rates, oil prices, geopolitical variables, corporate earnings, and policy changes.
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