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It is difficult to recall a governing party that succeeded after turning its back on public sentiment. Similarly, it is rare to remember a leadership that won an election after abandoning the party's core supporters.
Politics is ultimately a battle fought on a foundation. If the foundation crumbles, strategies become mere slogans.
Looking at the recent actions of the People Power Party's leadership, it is hard to shake the impression that this basic principle is being undermined.
They speak of victory in local elections. But a victory for whom? Is it for the People Power Party candidates, for the incumbent members of the National Assembly, or for the leadership's political calculations? The question is simple, but the answer is not clear.
Some within the leadership repeatedly say, "We must win over the swing voters to win." However, there is no explanation of how this will be achieved.
Instead, what has emerged is the so-called 'social distancing from Yoon Suk-yeol.' It is a choice that feels more like a mood than a strategy.
Let's look at the public opinion poll numbers.
In a poll commissioned by New Daily, about 80% of the People Power Party's supporters responded that they did not view former President Yoon Suk-yeol's actions as an insurrection. While public opinion was divided, the party's core supporters showed a clear direction.
In such a situation, is a choice to distance oneself from the supporter base an expansion strategy, or a dismantling of the foundation?
Local elections, in particular, have a completely different structure from presidential elections.
In local elections, the influence of party members is incomparable to that in presidential elections.
Local organizations, party chapter activities, volunteer networks, and spontaneous movements within online and offline communities build the stamina for an election. The spread of support, often formed around SNS and online communities, can operate more powerfully than the candidate's individual message.
A local election where party members are not mobilized is akin to starting with half the battle already lost.
What good are a hundred members of the National Assembly?
The very idea of relying on 'judgment of the administration' or 'wave elections' is already outdated.
Local elections are decided by organization and participation, not by slogans.
The era when merely repeating central political frames attracted votes is over. Without party members and communities actively working in the regions, no matter how grand the slogans, the election is likely to be decided before it even begins.
It's so bad that some are even suggesting abandoning the party.
While party members clearly believe that martial law was not an insurrection, why is the leadership unable to embrace them?
Speaking of expansion while ignoring the voices that form the party's foundation is a strategy with its steps reversed.
Is a strategy that shakes the foundation while talking about expansion an electoral engineering, or self-negation?
No election can be sustained for long by making supporters uncomfortable rather than convincing them.
In politics, the center may be a goal, but it is not the starting point.
The center (swing voters) is a space that expands when the core supporters are stably consolidated. If you extend your hand towards the center while the foundation is shaky, the result is likely to be internal attrition rather than an expansion of reach.
Is the choice to make party members anxious by pursuing an ill-defined center truly beneficial for the election?
If the intention is to emulate the obstructionist politics of Lee Jae-myung and Jung Chung-rae, it is less a strategy and more a loss of direction.
The bigger problem lies in the basis of the judgment.
The leadership must explain why they judged distancing to be advantageous when overall public opinion does not show a decisive lead.
If it is a strategy, there must be a rationale. A decision without a rationale is closer to a misjudgment than a strategy.
Whether it is a misjudgment by the leadership or an internal power struggle, if this direction continues, victory in the local elections is likely to remain a mere slogan.
The reason why the lament of a conservative party member, "It feels like it's truly time to part ways with them now," does not sound like mere emotional expression.
A political party exists not by its name, but by trust.
What the leadership will gain by abandoning the party's core supporters may not be an expanded reach, but a collapsed foundation.
Elections are won by strategy, but political parties survive by their foundation.
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