This was a week where tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz once again became the starting point for the market.

At the beginning of the week, the market first factored in concerns about Iran-related blockades, uncertainties in shipping traffic, and the possibility of a renewed surge in international oil prices. However, as the week progressed, market attention shifted from war news to corporate earnings, AI investments, and the profit outlook for technology stocks.

This week's global market was not one that ignored geopolitical risks. However, it was also not a market solely driven by geopolitical risks.

The New York stock market fluctuated based on news related to Hormuz.

On the 20th, the New York stock market saw a slight decline amid renewed Middle East tensions, and weakness continued on the 21st due to concerns about negotiation impasses. However, on the 22nd, it rebounded as expectations for a ceasefire extension coincided with strong earnings. On the 23rd, geopolitical uncertainties and concerns about the earnings of some large technology companies weighed on the market again.

International oil prices were the market's primary variable throughout the week.

When oil prices threatened the $100 per barrel mark from the mid-to-high $90s, the market recalculated inflation and interest rate paths.

Rising oil prices increase the burden on prices, and the burden of prices delays the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations. When interest rate expectations falter, the valuations of technology and growth stocks also become unstable.

However, oil prices themselves were not the core of the market this week.

The more important question that emerged was whether companies could protect their profits despite the oil price shock.

Indeed, the U.S. market channeled funds into companies with better-than-expected earnings, even with lingering Middle East risks, and reacted coldly to companies that revealed burdens from AI investments or concerns about slowing growth.

Seoul cannot avoid the same questions.

As Korea has a high dependence on energy imports, rising oil prices can directly lead to increased corporate costs, a worsening trade balance, and pressure on the won-dollar exchange rate. Therefore, Seoul does not solely focus on the easing of war news. It also considers whether oil prices are stabilizing, the exchange rate is calming down, and if foreign capital inflows can be sustained in the Korean stock market.

The conclusion of Money Radar this week is clear.

The market saw Hormuz, but it wasn't solely buying Hormuz. The market saw oil prices, but it didn't move solely based on them.

This week, capital didn't just stop at avoiding fear; it began to seek out areas where profits remained strong amidst the fear.

The trend this week can be summarized in one sentence.

"Hormuz shook the market, but earnings held it together."

Next week's checkpoints are threefold:

First, further volatility in the Strait of Hormuz and international oil prices. Whether oil prices rise above $100 per barrel or stabilize amidst negotiation expectations could differentiate inflation and interest rate expectations.

Second, the extent of the U.S. earnings season expansion. The earnings of some large technology companies are not enough. We need to see if strong earnings spread to AI infrastructure, power semiconductors, industrials, and consumer goods.

Third, the won-dollar exchange rate and foreign capital flows. The further rise of the Korean market depends less on the index itself and more on exchange rate stability and the continuation of foreign buying.

※ This article is a news-style commentary on market trends, not investment advice. Actual stock prices and capital flows may vary depending on exchange rates, oil prices, geopolitical variables, corporate earnings, and policy changes.