Photo of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei (left) and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei [EPA=Yonhap News file photo]

The New York Times (NYT) reported on the 24th (local time) that U.S. authorities believe Iran's new Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Seyyed Mojtaba Khamenei, has a greater interest in developing nuclear weapons than his predecessor and father, Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei.

Citing officials briefed by U.S. intelligence, the newspaper reported that U.S. intelligence agencies believe Mojtaba Khamenei and his hardline administration, which replaced the previous leadership eliminated by U.S. and Israeli strikes, harbor ambitions to develop advanced nuclear weapons.

U.S. officials have long believed that while Iran desired the capability to manufacture nuclear weapons, Ali Khamenei was hesitant, and that this stance was sincere.

Based on intercepted conversations from before the war and public statements, U.S. intelligence has assessed that Mojtaba Khamenei does not share his father's hesitation and is interested in developing advanced nuclear weaponry.

While the Biden administration has previously stated that Iran was seeking to develop early-stage nuclear weapons—providing a deterrent similar to a Hiroshima-class bomb—U.S. authorities estimate that Mojtaba Khamenei supports the development of thermonuclear warheads (hydrogen bombs) that could be miniaturized and mounted on long-range missiles.

U.S. officials told the NYT that while there are no signs Iran has resumed its nuclear program, it has taken certain steps to protect its nuclear assets, such as moving centrifuges to underground facilities in the central Iranian mountains of Kuh-e Korang, during the conflict last December and the recent war.

Regarding the ceasefire memorandum of understanding reached between the U.S. and Iran last month, the NYT interpreted Mojtaba Khamenei's remarks—that he allowed the agreement but did not agree to it "in principle"—as being aimed at the clause stating that "Iran does not pursue nuclear weapons."

The NYT noted that these intelligence assessments could serve as additional justification for the U.S. to escalate recent military actions directed at Iran. U.S. officials told the NYT that those within Iran who have argued that only nuclear weapons can deter U.S. and Israeli attacks believe their position has been significantly strengthened.

Rosemary Kelanic, director of the Middle East program at Defense Priorities, a U.S. think tank skeptical of U.S. military intervention, pointed out on the 23rd that the nuclear cooperation agreement the U.S. signed with Saudi Arabia has also significantly increased the likelihood of Iran pursuing nuclear weapons.

She added, "Iran now has a much greater incentive to weaponize [its nuclear program] to deter future attempts by the U.S. or Israel to collapse the regime or the state," and noted that "this war is counterproductive to the nominal goal of preventing nuclear proliferation in Iran."